Deutsche Version
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| Mario Draghi (center) accompanied by the Vice-President and the communication director (Source: Thomas Seidel) |
The first ECB press conference in the
new year 2019 does not initially promise to be very interesting. In
terms of what was said, it was. What is exciting, however, is what
has obviously or intentionally been told nothing about.
The ECB is certain that the current
conditions, with a key interest rate of zero percent and a freeze on
new acquisitions in the purchase program, will remain so until summer
2019 in order to achieve the target of core inflation of just below
two percent.
What has not been said is, that it will
remain so until the end of Mario Draghi's term as President of the
ECB.
If there is talk of no more new
purchases of government bonds, the portfolio of 25 percent of all
government bonds in the euro zone will nevertheless remain at this
level. What is not being said is, that maturing government bonds can
be replaced by new issues at the ECB. At the end of the day,
governments are not paying back anything and are not really reducing
their debt.
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| Sometimes better say nothing (Source: Thomas Seidel) |
However, the politically driven changes
in the economic framework conditions, such as the negative trade
dispute between the USA and China, the Brexit, the weakening demand
or positive developments in the labour market and rising wages, have
not yet led to the achievement of the desired inflation target. On
the whole, one comes to the conclusion that the tried and tested
money market policy is being pursued because the economy needs this
stimulus to achieve the declared inflation target after all. Which
was not said: Does the economy have to focus exclusively on a single
objective?
This is followed by a general and
repeated appeal to political leaders. Structural reforms had to be
undertaken, structural unemployment combated, fiscal buffers put in
place, making the economy made more resilient and the capital market
union completed. What has not been said: An out-of-control populist
government in Italy is increasingly leading the country into the
abyss. The reforms in France under President Macron, which have so
far been timid anyway, are threatening to disappear completely in the
angry protest of French citizens unwilling to reform. The nature and
consequences of Brexit are becoming increasingly unpredictable.
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| That counts for the vice-president too (Source: Thomas Seidel) |
Asked where the Governing Council drew
its seemingly certain economic conclusions from, Draghi explained,
that it was the long-term continuity of some key data that was
trusted. One continue to monitor developments. The decisive factor
would be the situation that would emerge next March, which is not
said: No one knows how things will develop around the UK's exit date
at the end of March. But only then is it worth taking a closer look.
Will the ECB's zero-interest policy,
which has now been pursued for a long time, not burden the banks'
profitability too much? The high operating costs, inherited
liabilities in the lending business and overbanking are more
responsible for this. Not a word about the simmering rumours of a
state-orchestrated association of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank in
Germany.
A prankster amoung the journalists
seriously asked whether the ECB was dealing with the issue of a
digital currency. Draghi refers to the results of studies, that all
point to more disadvantages than advantages of a digital currency.
What he doesn't say is, that if it doesn't even work in the city of
Frankfurt with a digital ticket for public transportation, how will
it work at the central banks?
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| Somethimes it's to talk about everything (Source: Thomas Seidel) |
What Mario Draghi definitely has
nothing to say about, however, are questions about his successor as
President of the European Central Bank. Nor are there any
speculations about Sabine Lautenschläger, Vice-President of the
European Banking Supervision. That is the task of other people.
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