Freitag, 26. Januar 2018

The markets start to imagine their news -Report from the press conference at the EZB- from Thomas Seidel


Mario Draghi (center)
(Source: Thomas Seidel)


The ECB Executive Board did not make substantive new decisions at its meeting today. The subsequent press conference, however, reveals a new trend. Where there are no news, the markets are increasingly making themselves some. This can not last long.

The European Central Bank (ECB) produces boredom. And that for over 15 months. The central bank does not change its decisions at the core. So the key interest rates remain unchanged. The government bond purchase program has been cut, but it remains. Otherwise there are no signs of change. This also applies to inflation. The goal of the ECB, just under 2 percent is not reached. So nothing changes. Only the economy, Mario Draghi admits, is growing well but unexpectedly.

This ECB course was adopted in autumn 2016. The background was the European election year 2017. Polls took place in the Netherlands, France, Germany and Austria. The contribution of the ECB was, to provide liquidity to the banks and the economy and to calm the markets. Whatever the outcome, at the end of 2017, new governments were expected in all these countries. In all these countries? Ironically, economically and politically so important Germany has four months after the election to the Bundestag no new stable government. The prospects to get one in such a short time are bad. Starting now with a turnaround in the monetary policy of the ECB seems to be too great a political risk.

However, this is apparently too boring for some market participants. If even the central bank announces no news, then you make yourself seemingly what. Earlier statements are quoted and reinterpreted. You try to put words in the mouth of decision-makers. Suddenly, it's no longer about fundamental economic data that is at the center of interest, but how language is used.



Mario Draghi has his hands full today to stress how much the ECB adheres to its own rules. Even absurd coherences are questioned. How the ECB sees developments in the exchange rates of the EURO? Clear answer from the President, exchange rates are not a goal of the European Central Bank. This is what others are talking about, not the ECB.
In the end, however, there is a damper for all lovers of news. Draghi said, there would be little chance of a rate hike this year.


One wonders which bored market participants necessarily want to talk about a change in the conditions at the ECB. Are they bored analysts or economists? Are they perhaps speculators or stupid people wasting time? Are they national politicians who simply do not want to understand the necesssaties of a supranational institution? Whoever thinks he has to force decisions on monetary policy should qualify professionally and try to become a member of the ECB Executive Board. All others have to stay outside.

Sonntag, 14. Januar 2018

From the Big Bang to Brexit A lecture from Prof. Dr. Catherine R. Schenk Faculty of History University of Oxford-


The House of Finance at the Goethe-University in Frankfurt am Main
(Source: Thomas Seidel)

The first lecture of the new year at the Frankfurt Goethe University deals with the consequences of financial market deregulation in Britain in the 1980s. If considered in a large historical arc, it could have been unmasked as a cause of Brexit, instead it withers to a microscopic detail view. Catherine R. Schenk did a disservice as an economics historian to her faculty.

Although not widely perceived by the general public, October 27, 1986, was one of the most important days in the world's financial history for the global financial community. The day was known by the term "Big Bang". On this day, a deregulation of national financial markets came into force in the United Kingdom. In retrospect, it is fair to say today, that with this day London's financial center has gradually become one of the most important in the world. However, that day also changed the overall economic structure of the United Kingdom, from a heavy industrial manufacturing economy to a finance-oriented services economy. Along with this, the focus of British national economic activity has shifted away from the coal and steel industries of the provinces in the north of the country to the slick suit-bearers of the London banking district in the south. This marks the exact boundary between the Brexit advocates and Brexit opponents. So if one want to understand the Brexit, one have to deal first with the Big Bang and one have to go back to the 1970s.

Catherine R. Schenk (l) is being introduced
(Source: Thomas Seidel)
The England of the 1970s is today known to most people especially as "groovy". The word describes a sense of fashion and art that inspired the young people worldwide. These were the days of fashion designer Vivian Westwood, Twiggy, miniskirts, bell bottoms, hot pants, the Rolling Stones, Eric Clapton, Queens, David Bowie, the hippies, and above all the long wild hair, everywhere. The money was in the hands of less rich people and institutions, there was no free capital market with access for everyone. But at the same time, this England was badly battered. It could easily be called the Greece of the 1970s. The country was officially governed by the Socialist Labor Party. But in reality, the powerful trade-unions of miners and steel workers prevailed. Absurd wage demands led to high inflation, strikes paralyzed the economy, and the state was heavily in debt. Thus, in 1979, the country fell into the hands of the Conservatives, led by Lady Margaret Thatcher. The longtime prime minister, later referred to as the "Iron Lady," knew that the poor situation in the country could only be improved if she succeeded in breaking the power of the trade-unions once and for all.

A statistic shows consequences of the Big Bang
(Source: Thomas Seidel)
Personally vilified, publicly mobbed, politically harshly attacked, Margarete Thatcher, against all odds, made tremendous reforms to the labor market, breaking the power of the trade-unions in the country effectively to this day. It operated a strongly monetarist economic policy and privatized state-owned enterprises, indeed it began to de-industrialize the country downright. Never should a working class from Liverpool or Birmingham set the tone. The alternative was to build up a smart service economy, especially the financial sector. It was in the exclusive hands of bankers, brokers and jobbers. But even this business was under pressure.

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods world economic order, Americans had liberalized their financial sector as early as 1975 in the so-called US MayDay, thus capturing the entire Eurobond bond market. There was a need for action and, in fact, the Thatcher government put pressure on the national financial industry to give up their cozy business in favor of competition. This is precisely where Catherine R. Schenk starts with her comments, focusing almost exclusively on one factor, the liberalization of trading fees for securities transactions. Of course, Schenk is right in saying that this part of the liberalization was politically enforced against considerable resistance from the national financial industry. But to understand the consequences of the Big Bang neither this explanation, nor the statistics shown enough. Schenk also does not seem to have dealt with other aspects of financial market deregulation. The author of this article was working at a British bank at the time of the Big Bang and can testify from his own point of view what happened there in advance. The banks have meticulously prepared for this moment. They were just waiting to finally get started on derivative financial products, as they had not existed in the world before. They were happy about the new options and greedy for the hoped-for profits.

A truth statement about the Big Bang
(Source: Thomas Seidel)
As a result, the financial business exploded in London and the run of investment banking of the 1990s and 2000s began, as it had recently experienced. For Great Britain, that meant a huge social change. While thousends of new rich people in London and generally in the south of the country became millionaires and celebrated one party after another and the money was literally squashed like fireworks, the province and especially the north impoverished poorly. While Wales and Scotland were able to gain special rights and began earning good money with land and people in tourism, the Empire's proud, northern heavy industry centers transformed into impoverished, bleak areas. Monetarism and the liberalization of a Margarete Thatcher have left a ruined country at their core. Great Britain no longer has any significant heavy industry, it can not even build its own warships as a nuclear power, and if they do, they themselves have already lost some of their own. The once-rich auto industry is almost entirely foreign-owned, as are many other industries. The industrie of Great Britain can be considered as sold out to foreigners. What has been privatized on public infrastructure only works bumpy and is ailing, like the railways and public transport. Healthcare is extremely costly but at the same time ineffective. Now that the recent financial crisis has also plagued the financial sector and the state has had to rescue dilapidated banks with billions, there are no alternative industries that could possibly support a boom.

Catherine R. Schenk is focussing to much on details
(Source: Thomas Seidel)
But the the people rather blame an anonymous bureaucracy of the European Union for these conditions, as the own politicians. To cover up his own miserable political failure, former Prime Minister David Cameron had UK citizens vote on leaving the European Union in June 2016. The hour of revenge for the forgotten province had come. A majority of rural citizens voted in favor of leaving, believing that the good old days of the long-lost empire will come back if only one can decide for themselves. So the Big Bang was the beginning of a hopeful development for a few, at the end of which Brexit stands as a disappointment of many.


Had Catherine R. Schenk pointed out these connections, she could have held a brilliant lecture. But she preferred to spend her time with small details. A big litter has failed her thoroughly. No great moment for the Goethe University in Frankfurt. Unfortunately!

From the editor

Dear readers,

About seven years ago I founded my blog http://signifikant1955.blogspot.de/ for information from business & finance. After 35 years working in German and British banking, I turned to journalism in 2009. It began with contributions to the daily newspaper Luxemburger Wort, for which I am now working as a correspondent in business and finance. But as a freelance journalist, I wanted to offer more in-depth analysis and background information. The space offered me the Internet.

To date, my blog has more than 15,000 readers from around 15 countries worldwide. And it runs only in german language so far. To expand my offer, I am now writing this blog in an english version. This page is here. I invite you to use the comment function. With this you can actively contribute to this page. In line with the new media, I am also happy about every "like".

I wish you a pleasant reading and a good start to the new year!

your


Thomas Seidel