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| Michael Bentlage (Source: Thomas Seidel) |
We met the CEO Michael Bentlage at a
regular event of the Frankfurt private bank in Chinese possession. We
talked with the CEO about the current developments in Luxembourg,
after Hauck & Aufhäuser had acquired the activities of the
former private bank Sal. Oppenheim there in the past few months.
At the event in Frankfurt's Marriot
Hotel, attended by about 160 asset managers in particular, Michael
Bentlage was very optimistic for his house. The year 2017 will end up
with top results. The equity ratio was increased to over 15 percent
and the Chinese owner Fosun continues to invest. There will be a new
online platform for the private customer business.
The integration of the Luxembourg
activities of the former Sal. Oppenheim is proceeding in a straight
line. Additional renting of office space focuses the Luxembourg
activities on one location. Hauck & Aufhäuser's service is well
acknowledged by customers, with a technological focus on the existing
Hauck & Aufhäuser platform.
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| Bernd Heynemann (Source: Thomas Seidel) |
The keynote speaker was Bernd
Heynemann, a former FIFA referee and German politician. His lecture
revolved around the theme of "decision-making", which is
such a difficult exercise for Germans. After all, a person would make
an average of 10,000 decisions in everydays life. The sheer number
then astonishes and one wonders, does that affect every breath? How
many of these decisions may be wrong decisions, especially in the
higher cognitive area? Personalities that you perceive as
decision-makers, would have to decide quickly anyway. A funny
situation arose when Heynemann addressed the audience and asked who
considered himself as a personality. There was no statement at all,
either by hand or by word.
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| Frank Engel (Source: Thomas Seidel) |
Because it is an asset management
event, always a representative of the Association of Independent
Asset Managers Germany e.V. (VuV) leaves an update, this time Frank
Engel.
In 2017, the new rules from MiFID II
were implemented in particular. In the same year it came to 40 new
admissions of member companies, for the future one strives to 300
federation members. Meanwhile, there is a new organization manual for
all members containing 168 pages and 67 attachments. The VuV Academy
would open on 4 October 2018.
Traditionally, Chief Investment Officer
Burkhard Allgeier makes statements on economic developments at these
events. Allgeier does not see the great commercial war between the US
and China. It might be, that at the end it comes to negotiations with
the result of an even better free trade treaty. With a buy-up stop of
US Treasury bonds, China would be more likely to hurt itself, as well
as a devaluation of the Yuan.
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| Burkhard Allgeier (Source: Thomas Seidel) |
Although the US Federal Reserve has
already changed its direction with regard to central bank policy,
Allgeier believes that its assumptions regarding the development of
inflation are unrealistic. Inflation will probably settle down to two
percent. The European Central Bank carries the concept of inflation
control like a monstrance. Other concepts, such as monetary control,
have been wrongly rejected. Interest rate increases by the ECB may
well come in spring 2019. Allgeier sees a fair interest rate level of
the ECB between 1.5 and 2.5 percent, with the upper limit not reached
before 2025. However, that alone could be rough for the bond markets.
The interest is not per se the enemy of the stock markets. Extremely
long-term analyzes, over approximately 150 years, would have shown
that stocks with an expected yield of 3 percent can be expected.
Reasonable investment thus needs a long
and a steady hand in any case. The banking house Hauck &
Aufhäuser emerges strengthened from the activities of the last
eighteen months for the future. Quite different than at Deutsche
Bank, for example, it can be based on a stable and reliable owner
from China.
